Abstract: See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/353195913 Bayesian Meta Analysis of Ivermectin Effectiveness in Treating Covid-19 Disease Preprint · July 2021 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.31800.88323 CITATIONS READS 2 25,563 2 authors: Martin Neil Norman Elliott Fenton Queen Mary, University of London Queen Mary, University of London 200 PUBLICATIONS 6,192 CITATIONS 392 PUBLICATIONS 15,653 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: PAMBAYESIAN (PAtient Managed decision-support using Bayesian networks) View project CAUSAL-DYNAMICS ("Improved Understanding of Causal Models in Dynamic Decision-making") View project All content following this page was uploaded by Norman Elliott Fenton on 12 July 2021. The user has requested enhancement of the Bayesian Meta Analysis of Ivermectin Effectiveness in Treating Covid-19 Disease Martin Neil and Norman Fenton Risk Information and Management Research School of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science, Queen Mary University of London 12 July 2021 Abstract A recent peer reviewed meta-analysis evaluating ivermectin (Bryant et al, 2021) concluded that this antiparasitic drug is a cheap and effective treatment for reducing Covid-19 deaths. These conclusions were in stark contrast to those of a later study (Roman et al, 2021). Although (Roman et al, 2021) applied the same classical statistical approach to meta-analysis, and produced similar results based on a subset of the same trials data used by (Bryant et al), they claimed there was insufficient quality of evidence to support the conclusion Ivermectin was effective. This paper applies a Bayesian approach, to a subset of the same trial data, to test several causal hypotheses linking Covid-19 severity and ivermectin to mortality and produce an alternative analysis to the classical approach. Applying diverse alternative analysis methods which reach the same conclusions should increase overall confidence in the result. We show that there is overwhelming evidence to support a causal link between ivermectin, Covid-19 severity and mortality, and: i) for severe Covid-19 there is a 90.7% probability the risk ratio favours ivermectin; ii) for mild/moderate Covid-19 there is an 84.1% probability the risk ratio favours ivermectin. Also, from the Bayesian meta-analysis for patients with severe Covid-19, the mean probability of death without ivermectin treatment is 22.9%, whilst with the application of ivermectin treatment it is 11.7%. The paper also highlights advantages of using Bayesian methods over classical statistical methods for meta-analysis. creative commons license 1