Ivermectin for COVID-19 in Peru: 14-fold reduction in nationwide excess deaths, p=.002 for effect by state, then 13-fold increase after ivermectin use restricted
Chamie-Quintero et al., OSF Preprints (Preprint)
Chamie-Quintero et al., Ivermectin for COVID-19 in Peru: 14-fold reduction in nationwide excess deaths, p=.002 for effect by state,.., OSF Preprints (Preprint)
Analysis of ivermectin use in Peru concluding that ivermectin most likely caused a 14 times reduction in excess deaths in Peru, prior to a 13 times increase after reversal of ivermectin use. Authors conclude that the results strongly suggest that ivermectin can complement vaccination. They note that the potential mechanism of action, competitive binding with the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, is likely to be non-epitope specific, possibly maintaining efficacy against emerging mutant strains.
Chamie-Quintero et al., 8 Mar 2021, preprint, 3 authors.
Ivermectin for COVID-19 in Peru: 14-fold reduction in nationwide excess deaths, p < 0.002
for effect by state, then 13-fold increase after ivermectin use restricted
Juan J. Chamie-Quintero, a Jennifer A. Hibberd, b David E Scheim c
Juan J. Chamie, Independent data analyst, Cambridge, MA (USA)
Jennifer A. Hibberd
Jennifer A. Hibberd, DDS, MRCDC (email: email@example.com)
William Osler Health System; Trillium Health Partners Hospital Centres; Instructor at the University of
David E. Scheim, PhD, US Public Health Service, Commissioned Corps, Inactive Reserve
2516 Ridge Road, Blacksburg, VA 24060 (USA).
Phone 540 320-8013. Fax 540 552-8014.
MeSH terms: COVID-19; ivermectin; Spike Protein, Coronavirus
Juan J. Chamie-Quintero (email: firstname.lastname@example.org ) is a data analyst in Cambridge, MA, USA.
Jennifer A. Hibberd, DDS, MRCDC (email: email@example.com) is a specialist dental surgeon at
William Osler Health System and Trillium Health Partners Hospital Centres and an instructor at University of
David E. Scheim, PhD (email: firstname.lastname@example.org) is a commissioned officer in the US Public Health Service,
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Objective. We aimed to identify mortality trends associated with COVID-19 deaths in Peru during
April through November 2020, when mass treatments with ivermectin (IVM), a drug of Nobel
Prize-honored distinction, were autonomously deployed at different times and to different extents
in Peru’s 25 states under a national policy that authorized these treatments.
Design. Ecological study of publicly available data. Excess deaths were analyzed state by state.
To identify potential confounding factors, Google mobility data, population densities, SARS-CoV2 genetic variations, seropositivity rates and other auxiliary data were also examined.
Primary outcome. Reductions in excess deaths, state by state, as compared with extent and time
period of IVM treatments.
Participants. The study population was restricted to ages ≥ 60 to eliminate confounding effects
of changing age distributions of COVID-19 incidence.
Results. The 25 states of Peru were grouped by extent of IVM distributions: maximal (mass IVM
distributions through operation MOT, a broadside effort led by the army); medium (locally
managed IVM distributions); and minimal (restrictive policies in one state, Lima). The mean
reduction in excess deaths 30 days after peak deaths was 74% for the maximal IVM distribution
group, 53% for the medium group and 25% for Lima. Reduction of excess deaths correlated with
extent of IVM distribution by state with p<0.002 using the Kendall τb test. Nationwide, excess
deaths decreased 14-fold over four months through December 1, 2020, after which deaths then
increased 13-fold when IVM use was restricted under a new president.
Conclusion. Mass treatments with IVM, a drug safely used in 3.7 billion doses worldwide since
1987, most likely caused these reductions in deaths during the time periods in which it was
deployed. The indicated biological mechanism of IVM, competitive binding with SARS-CoV-2
spike protein, is likely non-epitope specific, possibly yielding full efficacy against emerging viral
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THIS..
Please send us corrections, updates, or comments. Vaccines and
treatments are complementary. All practical, effective, and safe means should
be used based on risk/benefit analysis. No treatment, vaccine, or intervention
is 100% available and effective for all current and future variants. We do not
provide medical advice. Before taking any medication, consult a qualified
physician who can provide personalized advice and details of risks and
benefits based on your medical history and situation. FLCCC
provide treatment protocols.