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0 0.5 1 1.5 2+ Adjusted risk of viral+ at.. 64% Improvement Relative Risk ∆Spo2 (unadjusted) 41% Viral clearance 58% Viral clearance (b) 40% Time to viral- 49% primary Time to viral- (b) 34% c19ivm.org Babalola et al. Ivermectin for COVID-19 RCT EARLY Favors ivermectin Favors lopinavir/ri..
Ivermectin shows clinical benefits in mild to moderate COVID19: A randomised controlled double-blind, dose-response study in Lagos
Babalola et al., QJM: An International Journal of Medicine, doi:10.1093/qjmed/hcab035 (date from earlier preprint)
6 Jan 2021    Source   PDF   Share   Tweet
Small RCT comparing ivermectin 6mg & 12mg q84hr with lopinavir/ritonavir, showing a statistically significant and dose dependent effect of ivermectin on reducing the time to PCR-.
The study does not report mortality, hospitalization, progression, recovery, etc. The paper does report change in SpO2 (Figure 3, ∆SpO2), where a similar improvement with a smaller p value is seen with ivermectin, however this result is unadjusted and there are large differences between groups. Specifically, baseline SpO2 is lower in the control group, giving the control group more room to improve, therefore the actual benefit of ivermectin is likely to be even larger than the benefit in ∆SpO2 shown.
See also [doyourownresearch.substack.com].
adjusted risk of viral+ at day 5, 63.9% lower, RR 0.36, p = 0.11, treatment 40, control 20, adjusted per study, inverted to make RR<1 favor treatment.
relative ∆SpO2 (unadjusted), 41.5% better, RR 0.59, p = 0.07, treatment 38, control 18, figure 3.
risk of no viral clearance, 58.0% lower, HR 0.42, p = 0.01, treatment 20, control 20, inverted to make HR<1 favor treatment, 12mg - Cox proportional hazard model.
risk of no viral clearance, 40.5% lower, HR 0.60, p = 0.12, treatment 20, control 20, inverted to make HR<1 favor treatment, 6mg - Cox proportional hazard model.
time to viral-, 49.2% lower, relative time 0.51, p = 0.02, treatment 20, control 20, 12mg, primary outcome.
time to viral-, 34.4% lower, relative time 0.66, p = 0.08, treatment 20, control 20, 6mg.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
Babalola et al., 6 Jan 2021, Double Blind Randomized Controlled Trial, Nigeria, peer-reviewed, baseline oxygen required 8.3%, 10 authors, dosage 12mg or 6mg q84h for two weeks, this trial compares with another treatment - results may be better when compared to placebo.
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