Treating a Pandemic Respiratory Disease with a Mutagen is a Doomsday Scenario
Review of molnupiravir's mutagenic mechanism of action, and analysis of the increased probability of creating dangerous variants.
Anonymous et al., 3 Dec 2021, preprint, 1 author.
Abstract: PREPRINT
2021-12-02
Treating a Pandemic Respiratory Disease with
a Mutagen is a Doomsday Scenario
Anonymous1
Abstract
Merck’s Molnupiravir is a global catastrophic risk. Its broad use as a treatment for COVID-19 will
create dangerous variants of SARS-COV-2. It is already in use in some countries.
Molnupiravir (“MOLN”), a presumed anti-COVID19 drug, acts by significantly increasing the RNA
error rate in the coronavirus replication. That exponentially increases the probability of many
mutations in a single copy. Copies containing a large set of new mutations are
disproportionately likely to create dangerous mutations. Patients taking MOLN are expected to
carry and shed the virus in almost equal volumes as untreated patients.
Estimates show that MOLN would increase the frequency of sets of 8 mutations by 3,000 times,
and sets of 12 mutations by 240,000 times, per virus generation, per person. This does not
include recombinations and many other effects which are likely to compound these results.
Multiple rounds of replication and natural selection per person further increase the threat.
The impact cannot be detected immediately due to a possible lag between the appearance of a
new variant and the necessary changes in external conditions, which lead to its spread.
At least some of the many artificial variants, induced by the MOLN treatment, are likely to
combine immune escape, higher contagiousness, and higher virulence, just to mention a few.
This would be a gain-of-function experiment, performed on the entire human race.
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treatments are complementary. All practical, effective, and safe means should
be used based on risk/benefit analysis. No treatment, vaccine, or intervention
is 100% available and effective for all current and future variants. We do not
provide medical advice. Before taking any medication, consult a qualified
physician who can provide personalized advice and details of risks and
benefits based on your medical history and situation.
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