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All Studies   All Outcomes   Recent: 
0 0.5 1 1.5 2+ Mortality 89% Improvement Relative Risk Death/hospitalization 30% primary Death/hosp. (gamma vari.. 94% Death/hosp. (mu variant) 50% Death/hosp. (delta variant) 24% Death/hosp. (other varia.. 42% c19early.org/m Jayk Bernal et al. NCT04575597 Molnupiravir RCT EARLY Favors molnupiravir Favors control
Molnupiravir for Oral Treatment of Covid-19 in Nonhospitalized Patients
Jayk Bernal et al., New England Journal of Medicine, doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2116044, NCT04575597 (history)
16 Dec 2021    Source   PDF   Share   Tweet
MOVe-OUT RCT, showing significantly lower risk of hospitalization or death. In subgroup analysis efficacy was much lower with the delta variant. NCT04575597 (history).
Discussion of concerns with this trial can be found at [defyccc.com, trialsitenews.com]. See also: [twitter.com, twitter.com (B)].
Concerns have been raised that the mutagenic mechanism of action may create dangerous variants or cause cancer [Hadj Hassine, Swanstrom]. See [twitter.com (C)] for analysis of a variant potentially created by molnupiravir.
risk of death, 89.0% lower, RR 0.11, p = 0.01, treatment 1 of 709 (0.1%), control 9 of 699 (1.3%), NNT 87.
risk of death/hospitalization, 30.4% lower, RR 0.70, p = 0.05, treatment 48 of 709 (6.8%), control 68 of 699 (9.7%), NNT 34, primary outcome.
risk of death/hosp. (gamma variant), 94.1% lower, RR 0.06, p = 0.004, treatment 0 of 37 (0.0%), control 9 of 47 (19.1%), NNT 5.2, relative risk is not 0 because of continuity correction due to zero events (with reciprocal of the contrasting arm).
risk of death/hosp. (mu variant), 49.5% lower, RR 0.50, p = 0.15, treatment 6 of 75 (8.0%), control 13 of 82 (15.9%), NNT 13.
risk of death/hosp. (delta variant), 23.7% lower, RR 0.76, p = 0.41, treatment 18 of 237 (7.6%), control 22 of 221 (10.0%), NNT 42.
risk of death/hosp. (other variants), 42.2% lower, RR 0.58, p = 0.36, treatment 5 of 47 (10.6%), control 7 of 38 (18.4%), NNT 13.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
Jayk Bernal et al., 16 Dec 2021, Randomized Controlled Trial, multiple countries, peer-reviewed, 22 authors, average treatment delay 4.0 days, trial NCT04575597 (history).
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